The softer tone invaded the wide dimensional stock category, as 2×10 2/Btr KDHF posted losses totaling more than 3/4%, an about-face compared to last week’s 1/3% effort. For the month, 2×10 2/Btr KDHF finished up nearly 3%, arriving at the end of March almost 15-1/2% higher than it stood one year ago.
After dipping slightly last week, 2×12 2/Btr KDHF added to the bearish sentiment experienced the previous week. As Friday arrived, 2×12 2/Btr KDHF edged lower more than 1-3/4%, adding to last week’s 1-1/3% drop. As a result, 2×12 2/Btr KDHF closes out the previous 4-weeks off by more than 1-3/4% than its late-February 2022 mark while finding itself more 2-3/4% above its trading level from precisely one year ago.
After flexing their muscles for several weeks, Green DF Timbers succumbed to the market shift as it altered direction from its previous upwards path. Green DF Timbers closed out this week unchanged, a momentum shift compared to the last week’s 3% effort. Over the past 4-week’s, Green DF Timbers are up nearly 10-1/4% while remaining positioned nearly 9-1/4% above its late-March 2021 level posted one year ago.
2×4 Western S-P-F 1650fb MSR dipped by 2/3% for the week, as it too was unable to escape the seasonal shift after adding 1% last week. However, we have seen 2×4 Western S-P-F 1650fb MSR increase by 2-2/3% over the past month, while it stands upwards of 24-2/3% above its late-March 2021 level.
A turning point was marked this week. Prices found a touch of upwards momentum early in the week, as pricing inched minimally higher Monday and Tuesday. Then, however, the tone changed, as the balance of the week brought forth discounts and lower numbers. As a result, 2x4x8′ PET KDHF Solid Studs ended the week down nearly 1%, as it managed to turn the corner compared to the previous week’s 1/6% effort. Over the past month, we see that 2x4x8′ PET KDHF Solid Studs find themselves upwards of 2-1/4% higher, as they now stand 35-2/3% above their late-March 2021 trading level.
I will refer to my question posed last week: Is the canary back to stay? THAT WOULD BE YES! Red ink was a bit more abundant, as pricing posted its third consecutive down week. As Friday arrived, 2x4x9′ PET KDHF Solid Sawn Studs received a beating of 8%, as cheers from builders could be heard in the distance, adding to last week’s 2-1/4% drop. Over the past month, 2x4x9′ PET KDHF Solid Sawn Studs find themselves down 11% from their late-February level while positioned more than 4-1/3% below their price posted exactly one year ago.
Like last week, further retractions of inbound purchase inquiries forced producers to discount prices to attract interest. Purchasing was limited to small quantities, as caution spread across all levels. As a result, 4x8x1/2” CDX Plywood dipped nearly 4% for the week, a kidney punch as it added to the previous week’s ¾% loss. Arriving at the end of March, 4x8x1/2” CDX Plywood now finds itself nearly 4% lower over the past 4-weeks while remaining just almost 8% below its price posted one year ago.
Similar trading patterns were found in the plywood floor sheathing category, as it too crested the tippy-top trading level and retreated by Friday’s arrival. For the week, 4x8x3/4″ T&G UDLX Plywood edged lower by more than 1%, compared to the previous week’s unchanged effort. Year-on-year, 4x8x3/4” T&G UDLX Plywood finds itself standing more than 5% above its trading price posted from this time in March 2021 while remaining a mere 1/2% higher over the past month.
HAS THE APEX BEEN FOUND? This could be the case as sales ground to a halt at the mill level, and price action in the secondary market began to retreat. Shipping remained a concern, causing headaches across the supply chain. As Friday arrived, the “Commodity King” matched the previous week’s effort, as 4x8x7/16” OSB closed the week unchanged after showing a similar stagnant and unchanged action the last week. The king ends the past 4-weeks more than 2% higher and now sits upwards of 34-3/4% above its mark from precisely one year ago.
Plywood’s price ease helped propel the OSB to Plywood premium to a record-setting high, as it rocketed higher, slicing through the previous high-water mark of 14.7% posted back in 2020. As a result, we finish the week with 7/16″ OSB vs. 1/2″ CDX at a PREMIUM of 18.8%, increasing the previous week’s 14.1% mark.
Similar action was seen with OSB floor sheathing, as it stood pat amidst the market’s general market shifting tone. Buyers remained hesitant as they absorbed information from all sides. For the week, 4x8x23/32” T&G OSB in check number coasted into Friday unchanged, mirroring the previous week’s stagnant and unchanged effort. Over the past month, we have seen 4x8x23/32″ T&G OSB gain over 1-1/2% while leaving it 34-3/4% above its price point from one year ago.
Weakness with plywood pushed the OSB PREMIUM over plywood higher, finishing at 10.9%, higher than last week’s 9.6% mark.
Even with the market’s shifting tone, traders were split about whether the current turning point had the staying power. Positions arguing both sides with conviction, as housing data supported strong sales. In contrast, others countered that previous purchases and delays of deliveries would provide sufficient material needs in the short term. Time will tell what side wins, but my gut tells me that we have adequate supplies in the pipeline, and prices will retreat more for the foreseeable future. Once the week was said and done, the weekly font shade shifted from green to red, as the composite dipped $5.3mbf, slipping more than 1/3%, to button up the week at $1418.6mbf.
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